The diesel market share continues to decline in Western Europe. According to a study, however, the bottom does not seem to have been reached yet.
The market share of diesel vehicles among new passenger car registrations in Europe has reached a new low. Only 27,2 percent of all new cars registered from January to September 2020 in Western Europe (EU15 plus Switzerland and Norway) have a diesel engine, according to the Center of Automotive Research (CAR) in Duisburg. For comparison: In 2011 the diesel share in Western Europe reached an all-time high of 56,1 percent. But since the diesel scandal in 2015, the proportion of diesel engines has been falling sharply.
CAR director Ferdinand Dudenhöffer assumes that this trend will continue in the coming years. According to the experts, the decline in the diesel share is not only due to the loss of image in the wake of the emissions scandal, but also to the increased acquisition costs due to the more complex and expensive exhaust gas cleaning. In addition, the ongoing electrification of the drivetrain is taking away diesel customers. The EU's increasingly strict CO2 requirements, the introduction of the Euro 7 emissions standard, presumably in 2025, as well as decisions by governments to ban combustion engines (Great Britain from 2030) will further marginalize diesel in Europe. This is already the case in Holland and Norway with market shares of 4,5 and 10,3 percent respectively. In 2011, the diesel share in Norway was over 75 percent.
Dudenhöffer describes the “big SUVs”, large company cars and the tax advantages granted in Germany as the “last bastions” of diesel. Above all, it is the latter that would secure a comparatively high market share for diesel in this country, currently 29,9 percent. In countries like England or Switzerland, which forego diesel privileges, the diesel share is correspondingly lower at 16,8 and 23,0 percent, respectively.
How much the diesel also benefits from the tax advantages is shown by the boom in registrations of the currently heavily subsidized plug-in hybrids, which have become more attractive thanks to an environmental bonus and favorable company car taxation. In view of the ongoing negative diesel trend, Ferdinand Dudenhöffer recommends that car manufacturers increase the electric range of plug-in hybrids instead of investing in the development of diesel drives.