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Autonomous driving services should be flexible, efficient and cheap. From next year must they also prove it in Germany.
The robotaxi is coming to Germany. Initially, however, regionally limited and on a small scale. But the offer is to be rolled out on a broad basis soon. The operators are hoping for lucrative new business models, and customers are hoping for cheap and flexible transport. However, the services are only likely to provide a solution to the traffic problems to a limited extent.
Germany is following suit
So far, automated taxis have been used mainly in Asia and the USA, albeit mostly as part of everyday tests and research programs. However, a few services are already commercially oriented and at least regionally accessible to a universal group of passengers. Germany has so far lagged behind, but now wants to catch up.
The mobility service provider will be launching as early as next year Sixt together with the Israeli sensor technology company Mobileye a self-driving robotic taxi service. Initially, a test fleet is planned in the greater Munich area, which is to be brought into regular operation a little later. The basic vehicles come from the Chinese manufacturer Nio, Mobileye contributes cameras, radar and lidar. The vehicles are fully automated (level 4), but a human driver is initially on board for emergencies. The journeys are booked via smartphone, among other things via the app of the Sixt mobility platform "One".
Hamburg is getting ready
In Germany, the Munich ride-hailing robotic taxis would be the first of their kind if the start went as planned. However, the competition is already forming: at the other end of the republic, in Hamburg. VW wants to start a commercial service there from 2025, unlike Sixt, however, not with so-called ride-hailing, but with ride-pooling. If the Munich approach is based on the classic taxi business, a kind of shared call taxi service is to be established in the Hanseatic city.
VW has already gained several years of experience in this business area with the MOIA driver service. Accordingly, the mobility subsidiary is also on board for the new robotic driving service and operates the electric minibuses for the group. Last but not least, the northern Germans could score points with their vehicle: an automated variant of the upcoming ID.Buzz electric bus. The retro Stromer is optically in the tradition of the early Bullis and should arouse similar sympathy as this one.
The technology company Argo AI, which develops the hardware and software for autonomous driving, is involved as a partner. The streets of the initial test area in the Hamburg districts of Winterhude, Uhlenhorst and Hohenfelde are to be measured by the end of this year. Among other things, it is about the location and distances of traffic lights, cycle paths and street signs. Tests are then planned for autonomous driving on public roads in the Hanseatic city, but initially with a safety driver, as at Sixt. Public operation will then start in the middle of the decade.
Continuous operation possible
The main attraction of driverless driving for providers lies in the reduction in human personnel. This not only eliminates wage costs, but also break times and labor law limits. The vehicles can therefore, in principle, be in continuous operation on the move. To what extent the customer will benefit is still open. Most providers offer moderate prices that are below those of conventional taxis. How the costs will develop in the long run is difficult to predict.
It is also uncertain what influence automation will have on traffic in cities. The promise is that comfortable and affordable robomobiles will replace at least part of the private car fleet. And that could actually work: In 2019, the PTV Group's traffic planners developed a traffic model for the Oslo and Akershus regions to shed more light on the possible effects of autonomous driving. In some of the scenarios examined, automation could reduce the number of cars on the road by 84 to 93 percent.
Especially if all road users shared autonomous vehicles and used car pools, seven percent of today's vehicles would be sufficient to cover all journeys during rush hour. At the same time, according to other studies, there could also be a rebound effect if the new mobility services are so attractive that they encourage pedestrians and cyclists to switch to robotic vehicles.
Less lost time for everyone
The way to an ideal situation would undoubtedly be rocky. For example, autonomous cars should initially not improve the flow of traffic, but rather disrupt it. Using the example of Cologne, Jochen Lohmiller from PTV has calculated that the average lost time of all drivers would increase significantly with Robomobile. Likewise the length of the queue and the number of necessary stops. In return, the average speed would decrease: with a robo-car share of 20 percent of the total fleet by 11 percent, with 50 percent even by 13 percent. The most important reason: The autonomous vehicles are programmed in such a way that they adhere to traffic rules particularly meticulously, maintain large distances, and do not scurry over the traffic lights or run over road markings in dark green. Human drivers interpret the rules more flexibly, drive more riskily, but in the end more firmly.
The mix with the less fussy human drivers may cause problems rather than relief. "This, as well as untrained and possibly incorrect use of technology, can result in new sources of danger and impairment of safety in traffic," warns the Agora Verkehrswende think tank. The researchers also see problems with the consequences for the environment. On the one hand, autonomous vehicles could achieve 10 to 20 percent energy savings compared to conventional cars through more efficient driving, on the other hand, due to increased speeds in traffic and the operation and weight of the additional technology required in the vehicle, an increase in energy demand can be assumed.
