E-cars are still significantly more expensive to buy than cars with combustion engines. But this fact could be reversed in just a few years.
As early as the second half of this decade, electric cars in China could become cheaper in terms of purchase price than vehicles with internal combustion engines, regardless of subsidy measures. This is the result of a new cost forecast by the environmental organization ICCT.
The authors of the study used data on the costs of batteries and other vehicle components and, on this basis, created a forecast model for the future price development of the vehicles. These were calculated in various segments for plug-in hybrids and battery electric vehicles up to 2035. Battery-electric cars with low ranges of up to 250 kilometers will therefore reach the price level of combustion models by 2025. For vehicles with a range of 300 to 400 kilometers, this could be the case between 2026 and 2029. If the range is beyond 500 kilometers, price parity with classic combustion cars is not expected before 2030. Stromers with particularly large batteries will, however, be equal to plug-in hybrids in terms of purchase price as early as 2027. For the time being, the PHEVs remain cheaper to buy than BEVs.
In the analysis, only the costs for the purchase price were taken into account. According to the ICCT, electric cars could pay for themselves earlier in a total cost analysis that includes energy prices, among other things.