The Electromobility will probably prevail in the current decade. How much she that Combustion engines is displaced, but depends on various factors, as a study shows.
The market share of E-cars on the European New car market will increase massively in the coming years. The Center of Automotive Management (CAM) in Bergisch Gladbach expects that at least every second new car will be electrically powered by 2030. According to the forecast, under favorable framework conditions, an electronics market share of 90 percent is possible.
According to the CAM, the development of the decade that has just begun depends primarily on developments in battery costs, the charging infrastructure and political regulations. If the cost per kilowatt hour of capacity drops to around 2030 euros by 40 and the expansion of the charging network works, the experts expect an electric share of 90 percent. To do this, however, there would also have to be further tightening of the CO2 fleet targets, entry bans for combustion vehicles in metropolitan areas and registration bans for combustion vehicles or their announcements in other countries. The study puts the number of new European e-car registrations for 2030 in this fast scenario with 14 million vehicles, of which 12,6 million are pure e-cars.
If the conditions are not ideal, the CAM calculates an e-quota of around 75 percent. 80 percent of these are made up of pure electric cars (BEVs) and 20 percent of plug-in hybrids (PHEV). In total, that would be around 11,6 million e-mobiles. According to the experts, an even slower development of e-mobility is conceivable if negative or counterproductive influencing factors prevail - such as problems with the charging infrastructure. In this scenario, 50 percent of the new registrations are conventional combustion vehicles. Plug-in hybrids then experience higher demand, so that the BEV / PHEV ratio here is only 70 to 30 in favor of pure e-mobiles. In absolute numbers, 7,8 million EVs will roll onto the streets in Europe in the slow scenario in 2030.
